* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222018 10/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 59 65 66 68 65 65 68 66 65 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 59 65 66 68 65 65 68 66 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 40 43 46 49 50 50 49 48 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 11 12 12 4 6 3 5 4 6 5 12 18 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -2 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 96 106 118 130 131 140 121 132 181 179 220 260 271 213 229 241 251 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 155 155 155 154 156 157 158 158 157 156 154 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 61 61 60 59 61 59 60 58 60 57 52 50 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 10 9 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 47 65 66 62 57 54 24 9 -10 1 7 0 -3 5 -3 57 102 200 MB DIV 64 89 83 74 79 73 77 46 20 33 24 -2 23 49 53 39 33 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 3 2 5 1 2 1 2 1 3 LAND (KM) 121 133 146 154 162 179 213 247 291 325 347 392 438 468 477 489 467 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.1 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.5 104.6 105.0 105.5 106.3 107.0 107.8 108.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 3 2 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 23 24 24 22 21 20 20 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 345 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 29. 35. 36. 38. 35. 35. 38. 36. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 103.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 26.1% 19.0% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 27.6% 54.5% Logistic: 4.0% 15.8% 10.9% 5.1% 2.6% 2.6% 1.7% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.5% Consensus: 4.7% 14.4% 10.2% 6.3% 0.9% 0.9% 10.0% 20.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##