* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 79 75 71 59 42 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 81 79 75 71 59 42 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 80 78 75 71 61 46 33 26 23 21 21 22 24 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 18 23 38 37 25 20 10 7 14 11 15 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 11 8 7 0 8 2 0 0 4 5 3 2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 234 214 268 286 312 344 353 357 52 87 158 208 234 270 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.4 23.8 23.5 23.2 22.9 23.4 23.6 23.8 24.2 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 106 101 98 94 89 92 94 96 100 105 107 108 110 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 98 94 89 83 77 80 82 85 89 94 96 98 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.0 -54.5 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -56.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 42 36 31 22 21 20 15 14 13 15 18 23 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 27 28 28 25 13 11 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 5 51 40 27 11 -44 -78 -43 -33 -51 -65 -69 -76 -89 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 28 45 33 25 -20 -32 -19 -30 -36 -17 -3 8 -11 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -20 -47 -52 -40 -51 -40 -19 -27 -9 -10 -5 0 -2 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1840 1620 1406 1196 999 712 548 512 444 478 608 845 1126 1451 1792 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.1 32.8 33.3 33.7 33.8 33.1 32.2 31.0 29.8 29.0 28.5 28.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.5 29.6 26.7 23.8 21.0 17.1 15.5 15.3 15.9 17.4 19.6 22.6 25.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 25 24 20 12 5 6 7 10 12 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 24 CX,CY: 22/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -24. -31. -37. -40. -43. -45. -48. -49. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -10. -11. -11. -9. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -7. -23. -28. -34. -42. -45. -45. -44. -42. -40. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -5. -9. -21. -38. -61. -70. -75. -81. -82. -78. -73. -67. -65. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.4 32.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 519.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 2.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 4( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 79 75 71 59 42 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 73 69 57 40 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 72 68 56 39 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 54 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT