* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 80 76 66 52 32 18 15 17 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 80 76 66 52 32 18 15 17 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 82 81 79 75 67 54 40 32 29 29 29 28 27 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 15 23 36 29 18 16 6 10 5 5 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 11 10 12 5 8 3 -1 11 8 8 7 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 273 244 236 269 294 336 353 5 24 88 83 162 152 218 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.9 25.0 24.3 23.5 23.4 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.7 24.8 25.3 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 109 110 104 97 93 94 94 96 99 104 105 109 110 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 101 102 96 87 81 81 82 85 88 93 94 98 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 49 43 36 25 21 19 18 16 15 16 18 22 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 28 27 27 25 17 11 11 13 13 9 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -29 8 38 34 25 16 -36 -48 -25 -22 -31 -26 -34 -50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 6 36 59 29 37 -22 -22 -41 -24 -11 -15 7 4 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -11 -22 -33 -43 -27 -41 -22 -17 -2 2 13 0 5 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2050 1842 1654 1442 1247 878 674 532 468 522 637 840 1085 1349 1619 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.2 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.2 32.7 31.6 30.6 29.6 28.9 28.4 28.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.2 32.7 30.1 27.4 24.6 19.8 17.3 16.5 16.7 18.0 20.0 22.6 25.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 23 24 22 16 8 6 6 8 10 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 21 CX,CY: 19/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. -47. -48. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -18. -28. -29. -28. -30. -35. -41. -42. -40. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -4. -14. -28. -48. -62. -65. -63. -63. -65. -66. -61. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.4 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 1.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 5( 19) 3( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 82 80 76 66 52 32 18 15 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 79 77 73 63 49 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 70 60 46 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 56 42 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT