* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 78 77 68 54 37 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 78 77 68 54 37 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 77 75 73 66 55 45 38 33 31 30 31 33 35 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 7 7 17 25 27 23 18 15 12 12 2 6 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 6 9 11 11 2 2 5 8 5 1 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 206 227 222 222 220 294 317 347 11 38 80 91 139 200 243 306 215 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.9 24.1 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.8 24.9 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 110 108 108 101 95 94 94 97 99 104 105 109 111 112 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 102 101 100 91 83 82 82 85 88 93 94 97 99 99 98 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.8 -56.3 -56.7 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 45 47 50 49 43 32 27 25 20 19 21 25 29 31 36 40 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 30 29 26 21 16 13 10 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -40 -31 -1 24 26 8 -1 -16 -6 0 -15 -4 -27 -32 -43 -39 200 MB DIV 23 4 13 45 59 10 -23 -42 -29 -17 -11 -3 10 12 12 -2 -6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -13 -15 -53 -44 -21 -9 -3 -1 2 10 8 11 10 7 6 LAND (KM) 2224 2045 1861 1660 1461 1078 828 663 576 581 671 843 1061 1303 1530 1745 1955 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.6 32.2 32.8 32.6 31.7 30.7 29.6 28.7 27.9 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.5 35.3 33.0 30.3 27.7 22.7 19.7 18.3 18.0 18.8 20.5 22.9 25.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 23 23 22 17 10 6 5 7 10 12 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -34. -37. -40. -41. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -20. -26. -32. -37. -39. -39. -39. -38. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 2. -7. -21. -38. -48. -56. -62. -64. -61. -57. -51. -48. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.5 37.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.6% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 8.7% 7.7% 2.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 8.1% 6.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 6( 16) 3( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 77 78 77 68 54 37 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 74 75 74 65 51 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 71 62 48 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 55 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT