* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 52 50 41 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 52 50 41 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 55 52 45 37 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 22 20 25 33 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 10 6 8 11 7 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 234 244 255 253 230 228 229 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 123 118 115 114 115 117 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 116 111 108 106 108 110 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 68 66 68 62 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 12 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -30 -36 -42 -51 -62 -59 -44 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 61 77 78 69 65 30 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 9 11 9 3 -2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1580 1614 1650 1694 1740 1858 2042 2020 1928 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.4 32.8 33.2 33.7 34.8 36.5 38.4 40.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 7 3 1 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -5. -14. -24. -34. -41. -44. -46. -47. -48. -49. -47. -47. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.8 32.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.0% 8.2% 6.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.7% 3.0% 2.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 55 52 50 41 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 50 48 39 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 46 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT