* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 69 72 72 71 60 50 39 32 30 29 32 35 39 42 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 69 72 72 71 60 50 39 32 30 29 32 35 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 68 69 69 66 59 52 45 39 36 37 39 43 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 6 11 5 4 14 25 21 20 14 8 7 7 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 5 -1 2 11 14 7 6 1 0 -2 0 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 257 278 245 166 159 223 298 321 349 13 25 51 95 136 179 258 257 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.4 24.6 24.8 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 117 115 116 111 105 105 99 99 103 105 106 110 112 112 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 100 102 102 104 102 96 94 86 85 90 93 94 98 100 99 98 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -55.6 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 5 3 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 43 44 48 49 50 50 44 35 32 29 25 23 27 31 34 37 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 30 33 31 30 25 21 16 13 11 9 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -37 -44 -51 -45 -34 6 3 23 32 24 39 51 45 40 14 11 200 MB DIV 8 10 -8 4 20 21 65 11 -39 -26 -23 -11 15 11 8 15 7 700-850 TADV 3 8 13 12 5 6 -18 -32 -23 -9 3 25 9 12 4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2311 2329 2349 2363 2249 1939 1575 1224 1003 907 916 1026 1185 1382 1602 1831 2048 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.9 30.7 31.0 30.7 29.8 28.7 27.5 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 41.4 40.7 39.3 38.0 34.2 29.8 25.6 23.2 22.6 23.3 25.2 27.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 10 13 15 18 19 14 7 5 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. -1. -8. -14. -22. -28. -32. -34. -34. -33. -32. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. -5. -15. -26. -33. -35. -36. -33. -30. -26. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.8 42.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.3% 10.2% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 4.7% 3.4% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.4% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 68 69 72 72 71 60 50 39 32 30 29 32 35 39 42 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 70 70 69 58 48 37 30 28 27 30 33 37 40 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 65 65 64 53 43 32 25 23 22 25 28 32 35 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 58 57 46 36 25 18 16 15 18 21 25 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT