* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 49 47 39 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 49 47 39 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 48 44 36 27 23 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 14 20 18 29 36 43 50 61 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 3 7 1 6 9 4 7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 272 237 224 236 233 232 236 253 263 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.3 23.8 23.3 25.1 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 123 118 103 98 117 157 152 153 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 6 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 48 48 44 43 46 50 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 28 30 29 25 14 13 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 49 58 65 60 46 40 4 -5 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 55 47 40 64 48 28 2 26 23 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 11 15 1 3 -13 33 46 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1418 1269 1118 941 766 391 -2 -177 -655 -647 -651 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.7 21.7 24.1 26.5 28.9 31.2 33.3 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.0 122.8 121.6 120.3 119.0 116.2 112.8 109.1 104.9 100.2 95.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 7 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -19. -31. -49. -53. -56. -60. -65. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. 1. 0. -3. -18. -22. -16. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -16. -24. -39. -44. -43. -63. -66. -70. -75. -82. -91. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 124.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##