* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 116 115 111 101 87 76 64 45 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 116 116 77 55 36 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 116 114 78 55 35 33 36 36 32 27 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 12 11 14 17 25 36 40 58 73 76 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 2 3 1 8 9 15 10 9 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 284 238 240 238 217 221 220 244 240 263 273 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.0 24.9 22.8 19.7 11.0 15.0 13.5 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 149 153 157 141 110 98 86 73 76 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 131 135 139 127 102 92 82 72 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.5 -51.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 58 52 42 35 31 28 36 41 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 32 32 30 28 24 27 26 22 15 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 56 40 14 27 29 43 108 100 72 86 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 42 64 44 25 76 98 59 83 59 29 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 17 4 4 6 -10 -25 -53 57 54 166 208 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 247 127 11 -113 -226 -166 50 259 302 249 947 1400 674 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.9 29.9 31.0 32.1 34.3 36.8 39.6 42.6 45.7 48.3 50.3 52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.1 85.7 84.7 83.8 80.6 75.4 68.6 60.1 50.2 40.1 30.2 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 21 27 33 38 38 35 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 27 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -16. -29. -42. -55. -65. -73. -80. -83. -85. -86. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. -20. -23. -22. -21. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -7. -6. -7. -15. -24. -26. -32. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -4. -14. -28. -39. -51. -70. -91.-104.-118.-114.-112.-112.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 27.8 86.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 592.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 11.3% 7.2% 2.9% 1.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 16.5% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 4.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 0( 52) 0( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 116 77 55 36 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 114 75 53 34 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 72 50 31 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 83 64 59 48 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 77 72 61 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 90 85 74 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 IN 12HR 115 116 116 107 101 97 92 81 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61