* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 66 64 57 50 43 35 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 66 64 57 50 43 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 62 59 52 45 36 28 22 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 11 24 30 35 46 50 56 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 10 13 9 6 2 3 4 2 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 97 334 313 346 221 233 236 236 235 253 259 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.1 25.3 23.8 23.3 24.4 28.7 29.1 28.4 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 124 124 125 118 103 98 110 155 161 154 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 55 54 53 50 48 42 39 42 49 57 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 36 36 34 34 32 28 17 12 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 69 60 62 55 56 67 56 41 61 16 8 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 48 44 5 21 62 62 33 28 28 6 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 4 6 2 10 4 4 -26 43 86 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1821 1737 1653 1541 1429 1137 785 412 43 -106 -619 -796 -911 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.8 21.8 24.0 26.3 28.8 31.6 34.7 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.7 127.0 126.3 125.3 124.3 122.0 119.3 116.4 113.3 110.0 105.7 100.6 95.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 15 17 18 19 21 25 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 20 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -12. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -11. -19. -27. -39. -43. -47. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -10. -25. -31. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -20. -27. -35. -51. -61. -56. -64. -70. -74. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.4 127.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##