* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 58 59 62 62 64 57 50 38 28 24 26 27 28 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 58 59 62 62 64 57 50 38 28 24 26 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 57 57 59 62 63 60 54 45 36 31 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 8 3 1 8 13 16 20 29 45 31 23 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 12 11 8 5 0 -2 -3 6 12 6 13 13 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 251 278 287 311 317 314 262 254 276 318 323 347 1 27 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 25.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.8 23.9 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 106 114 114 115 114 112 110 108 107 99 94 93 93 96 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 92 98 98 98 99 101 100 100 97 89 83 82 81 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -55.3 -55.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 4 2 1 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 32 34 39 43 48 54 57 55 47 45 42 37 34 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 31 33 31 33 32 34 29 28 23 20 19 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 13 3 -8 -4 -24 -46 -34 -9 -18 -11 -10 -87 -75 -66 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -17 -33 -52 -38 -3 24 28 24 -9 5 -11 -58 -40 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 0 0 4 13 3 -11 -22 -4 -5 0 -11 -23 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1853 1955 2058 2138 2218 2302 2324 2067 1723 1340 1038 837 644 493 353 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 30.9 30.0 29.4 28.7 28.3 29.1 30.4 31.7 32.8 33.5 33.7 33.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.7 43.3 42.9 42.5 42.2 41.1 38.7 35.4 31.0 25.9 21.7 18.6 16.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 8 14 18 21 20 16 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. -0. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 4. -3. -6. -13. -18. -19. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 2. -5. -17. -27. -31. -29. -28. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.7 43.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -35.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 58 59 62 62 64 57 50 38 28 24 26 27 28 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 57 58 61 61 63 56 49 37 27 23 25 26 27 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 54 57 57 59 52 45 33 23 19 21 22 23 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 47 50 50 52 45 38 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT