* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 77 77 71 65 57 47 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 77 77 71 65 57 47 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 74 72 69 63 56 46 35 27 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 4 4 10 15 29 38 45 52 56 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 10 8 11 9 12 4 1 0 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 351 100 352 318 290 229 229 230 239 243 260 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.4 23.2 24.2 29.5 29.0 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 128 124 124 125 119 97 108 164 160 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 57 54 53 53 50 45 41 43 50 55 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 35 36 38 36 35 34 31 23 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 61 79 67 62 47 60 74 36 42 30 10 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 35 43 29 -5 56 79 39 29 26 26 34 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 6 10 14 6 8 0 8 66 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1882 1813 1744 1646 1548 1293 970 606 201 15 -467 -799 -852 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.7 19.0 20.8 22.9 25.3 27.9 30.8 33.8 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 127.7 127.1 126.2 125.4 123.3 120.8 118.0 114.8 111.2 107.0 102.0 97.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 10 13 16 18 20 22 24 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 20 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -9. -17. -25. -36. -40. -43. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -5. -16. -36. -34. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -4. -10. -18. -28. -43. -67. -72. -79. -83. -86. -90. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.1 128.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 17.0% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 8.8% 4.5% 2.8% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 8.6% 6.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##