* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 81 80 73 67 62 53 47 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 81 80 73 67 62 53 47 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 79 77 70 62 52 42 32 24 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 2 12 13 16 18 28 30 43 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 9 8 7 10 11 1 8 0 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 38 40 337 332 320 299 259 244 227 231 233 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.3 25.6 23.3 23.8 29.1 28.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 135 132 127 128 121 98 104 160 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 -0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 2 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 54 53 50 50 49 44 46 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 37 38 39 39 38 38 35 34 25 13 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 80 76 77 77 69 51 39 64 44 62 89 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 61 56 10 8 5 38 50 42 70 33 43 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 1 1 9 14 9 0 7 2 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1977 1945 1913 1847 1782 1599 1343 1044 683 277 26 -400 -833 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.6 18.9 20.5 22.6 25.1 28.0 31.2 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.5 128.4 128.0 127.5 126.0 123.9 121.5 118.8 115.8 112.4 108.7 105.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 6 7 10 13 15 18 20 22 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 9 4 0 1 0 0 0 21 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -22. -22. -22. -23. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -17. -31. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. -0. -7. -13. -18. -27. -33. -50. -69. -68. -70. -72. -75. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.2 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 17.7% 15.3% 11.6% 8.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.7% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 7.7% 5.8% 4.3% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##