* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 71 73 72 75 79 77 71 69 66 55 47 42 40 27 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 71 73 72 75 79 52 36 34 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 75 76 76 78 80 54 36 37 38 38 37 36 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 13 16 18 15 16 8 16 12 15 32 56 73 70 51 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 3 3 3 0 1 -1 3 6 12 12 14 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 300 302 313 298 298 302 304 290 289 296 249 216 236 236 215 236 231 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 28.7 24.8 23.9 21.2 14.8 12.3 13.2 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 154 158 158 157 159 164 151 109 104 90 75 72 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 139 139 142 142 139 141 147 137 101 97 84 72 71 71 69 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.0 -48.8 -46.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 -0.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 65 63 67 66 70 62 53 40 32 31 33 45 50 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 27 27 28 26 27 29 26 22 21 22 19 21 26 30 24 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 74 78 70 55 23 38 17 4 0 43 150 217 226 244 217 200 MB DIV 44 67 52 37 6 27 19 51 9 80 87 91 91 71 64 40 42 700-850 TADV 15 12 17 21 20 22 23 9 25 10 -3 33 -9 61 -183 -92 -54 LAND (KM) 165 122 83 125 192 350 294 71 -142 -54 89 342 358 200 575 1214 1174 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.3 25.1 27.1 29.1 31.3 33.5 36.1 39.0 41.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.6 85.6 85.8 85.9 86.1 85.8 84.9 83.0 79.8 74.8 68.0 60.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 16 21 28 31 31 31 32 31 30 HEAT CONTENT 83 87 76 34 31 36 31 29 5 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -16. -25. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 2. 5. 1. -5. -7. -7. -12. -9. -4. 0. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 15. 19. 17. 11. 9. 6. -5. -13. -18. -20. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.2 85.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 27.3% 18.0% 11.7% 9.4% 11.6% 11.9% 15.0% Logistic: 6.9% 19.6% 11.8% 6.9% 2.8% 8.8% 6.9% 16.1% Bayesian: 4.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 10.1% 16.4% 10.2% 6.5% 4.1% 6.9% 6.3% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 68 71 73 72 75 79 52 36 34 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 63 66 68 67 70 74 47 31 29 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 61 60 63 67 40 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 51 54 58 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT