* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 100 95 94 89 85 81 76 73 69 60 53 40 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 105 102 100 95 94 89 85 81 76 73 69 60 53 40 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 102 99 96 94 89 82 74 65 56 47 39 31 27 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 17 16 12 11 15 16 16 12 24 27 41 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 0 4 5 7 7 9 14 10 8 3 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 59 61 51 50 41 7 321 332 303 258 248 237 246 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.6 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.4 23.3 23.9 29.7 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 144 144 143 138 131 127 125 119 98 105 165 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -50.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -49.6 -49.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 4 2 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 65 63 60 62 62 57 55 54 50 46 46 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 40 38 41 41 41 40 38 39 38 35 33 25 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 84 87 86 80 73 64 60 58 38 46 60 44 71 53 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 61 29 33 17 0 50 38 57 25 57 20 25 -12 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 1 4 7 5 5 -13 -7 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1762 1810 1859 1882 1905 1882 1794 1655 1465 1226 933 582 177 15 -385 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.0 18.1 19.4 21.0 23.1 25.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.7 126.3 126.7 127.1 127.4 127.0 126.1 124.7 122.8 120.5 117.9 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 5 8 10 12 15 17 19 20 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 11 13 14 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 30 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -39. -44. -47. -48. -48. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -15. -25. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -10. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. -36. -45. -52. -65. -80. -80. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.5 125.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 -2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 13.0% 10.5% 7.5% 5.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.6% 3.8% 2.7% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##