* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142018 10/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 42 51 56 59 62 58 52 51 52 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 42 51 56 59 62 40 31 28 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 31 28 27 31 23 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 24 22 23 20 15 13 13 14 21 35 57 73 98 90 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 6 4 1 4 -13 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 266 274 280 275 272 286 273 301 280 271 245 229 238 244 247 258 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.4 25.0 21.0 15.0 11.9 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 155 154 150 156 164 161 159 159 145 110 89 76 74 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 140 140 139 135 140 146 142 141 140 130 99 83 74 72 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -51.6 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 10 8 10 8 9 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 65 65 61 60 59 63 65 55 35 19 22 28 44 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 16 16 22 25 24 24 25 22 19 20 28 17 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 66 62 69 71 73 47 50 35 48 34 17 -4 74 50 -45 200 MB DIV 88 44 16 22 45 49 39 44 43 51 46 17 24 16 34 31 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 6 9 10 27 21 17 27 -10 -9 -148 -73 26 16 LAND (KM) 103 95 87 77 38 69 233 429 265 84 -209 -272 -244 43 6 -2 614 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.7 22.0 23.6 25.4 27.4 29.6 32.0 34.5 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.9 87.2 87.2 86.6 85.1 82.6 78.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 11 12 15 19 23 30 37 39 37 HEAT CONTENT 51 53 52 49 44 25 32 101 33 27 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 35. 34. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -30. -46. -60. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 10. 10. 10. 11. 6. 1. 2. 11. -3. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 26. 31. 34. 37. 33. 27. 26. 27. 1. -23. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 86.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.9% 8.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 7.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.5% 2.1% 2.4% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 6.5% 3.9% 2.5% 0.2% 0.7% 3.4% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 FOURTEEN 10/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 42 51 56 59 62 40 31 28 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 39 48 53 56 59 37 28 25 27 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 43 48 51 54 32 23 20 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 34 39 42 45 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT