* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 106 102 96 91 87 84 81 73 66 59 49 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 106 102 96 91 87 84 81 73 66 59 48 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 106 103 100 94 88 78 69 59 50 42 35 30 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 13 12 15 11 9 15 15 21 23 28 39 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 0 2 5 7 10 6 8 8 5 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 49 69 60 53 51 1 326 317 296 276 248 230 239 225 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.7 26.9 26.5 26.4 25.6 23.4 24.4 30.0 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 143 142 143 138 131 128 128 121 99 110 169 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 65 65 60 60 63 61 57 54 50 47 48 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 41 41 40 42 41 41 41 41 38 37 35 30 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 85 83 81 83 78 67 54 46 38 39 57 64 89 72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 108 47 32 38 -3 46 36 47 46 29 34 17 8 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 6 10 8 -2 11 -38 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1699 1746 1794 1823 1853 1861 1790 1674 1499 1274 994 651 248 51 -386 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.7 18.9 20.5 22.6 25.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.0 125.5 126.0 126.4 126.9 126.7 126.0 124.7 122.9 120.8 118.3 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 7 9 11 14 17 20 21 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 11 12 8 3 1 1 0 0 0 33 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -18. -26. -33. -39. -44. -49. -52. -52. -52. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -6. -3. -1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 1. -1. -2. -8. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -37. -44. -51. -61. -77. -77. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.6 124.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 16.1% 12.9% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.9% 4.4% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/06/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 18 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##