* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 48 48 44 43 44 43 41 42 42 43 44 46 43 44 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 48 48 44 43 44 43 41 42 42 43 44 46 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 47 46 47 50 51 50 48 46 45 45 46 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 7 4 12 11 14 22 28 18 20 13 12 14 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 12 7 4 6 2 4 11 11 6 0 -3 -1 2 9 8 21 SHEAR DIR 16 331 340 4 235 294 259 256 248 272 263 276 256 270 244 276 230 SST (C) 24.6 24.7 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.6 24.1 25.0 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.4 22.2 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 102 103 99 98 97 97 96 99 106 109 111 109 107 107 104 92 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 87 85 84 84 84 84 87 93 96 99 97 96 96 95 85 79 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -55.2 -56.3 -57.2 -57.1 -56.7 -56.6 -55.7 -54.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 38 39 40 41 42 45 39 33 29 26 26 26 26 33 39 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 30 29 26 26 27 28 27 26 24 23 21 20 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 42 35 23 28 19 23 62 68 69 50 26 -18 -16 33 120 172 142 200 MB DIV 0 10 11 -4 2 -15 7 21 7 -37 -40 -25 -8 35 38 50 52 700-850 TADV 19 15 19 13 12 3 0 0 -11 -28 -31 -2 -14 -9 -61 -47 -59 LAND (KM) 996 1034 1045 1081 1126 1272 1470 1713 1960 2208 2038 1747 1513 1329 1121 846 390 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 37.4 37.3 37.1 36.8 36.0 34.9 33.5 32.1 30.7 29.7 29.2 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 53.9 52.7 51.4 50.2 47.7 45.2 42.7 40.3 38.0 35.4 32.4 29.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 17 21 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -21. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.5 55.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.1% 9.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.8% 4.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 48 48 44 43 44 43 41 42 42 43 44 46 43 44 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 48 44 43 44 43 41 42 42 43 44 46 43 44 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 41 40 41 40 38 39 39 40 41 43 40 41 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 36 35 36 35 33 34 34 35 36 38 35 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT