* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 45 42 38 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 52 45 42 38 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 51 45 40 37 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 12 11 9 16 35 47 78 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 9 9 12 -8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 334 320 278 211 197 205 228 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.6 22.7 22.1 18.7 14.3 12.5 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 101 93 88 68 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -51.6 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 55 54 52 52 42 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 23 22 20 18 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 62 84 75 62 45 6 22 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 13 54 75 65 87 73 25 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 0 -8 -18 -42 -124 -76 -69 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1320 1414 1518 1643 1602 982 640 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.6 32.8 34.5 36.2 41.3 47.3 53.3 59.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 168.0 167.7 166.4 165.1 160.9 155.6 149.8 144.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 16 20 25 33 35 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. -37. -41. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -7. -29. -48. -63. -68. -74. -83. -93.-107.-116. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. 1. -3. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -20. -25. -25. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -22. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -18. -22. -30. -40. -59. -79. -98.-117.-128.-143.-164.-186.-211.-230. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.4 168.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##