* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 59 50 45 43 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 59 50 45 43 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 59 52 47 44 39 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 13 10 24 45 66 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 1 11 16 11 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 299 324 316 266 199 190 221 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.4 24.1 23.7 22.8 20.8 16.9 13.4 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 108 104 101 93 75 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 58 55 50 40 31 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 27 25 24 25 22 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 77 52 80 78 47 18 3 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 1 12 60 65 87 67 26 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 15 2 -7 -6 -42 -6 -4 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1124 1232 1345 1424 1514 1821 1316 769 412 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.9 32.1 33.3 34.5 38.3 43.9 50.3 56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 167.4 167.5 167.6 167.0 166.3 163.2 158.5 152.8 147.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 13 18 28 35 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 19 CX,CY: -8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 931 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -24. -30. -33. -36. -40. -44. -48. -53. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -27. -43. -56. -61. -66. -74. -84. -95.-103. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -12. -12. -9. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 1. -1. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -8. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -25. -27. -31. -40. -58. -75. -92.-106.-116.-127.-145.-162.-182.-196. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.7 167.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##