* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 117 114 110 100 90 90 89 89 84 80 76 75 72 69 66 V (KT) LAND 120 119 117 114 110 100 90 90 89 89 84 80 76 75 72 69 66 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 114 108 102 90 81 77 75 72 69 67 64 63 62 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 12 10 3 4 7 11 13 18 17 10 8 8 7 11 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 2 5 3 0 1 2 3 1 1 9 5 9 7 SHEAR DIR 315 299 277 248 292 6 3 41 38 62 32 40 359 332 310 306 273 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 140 136 134 132 131 133 131 128 122 123 120 118 118 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -49.8 -50.8 -50.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 70 71 69 65 64 63 60 57 52 49 46 42 34 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 39 39 39 40 40 44 44 46 43 43 41 42 41 40 39 850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 63 58 48 51 59 70 96 103 111 111 126 144 139 145 154 200 MB DIV 104 88 73 39 31 7 -20 20 59 43 27 68 51 93 56 50 11 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 5 4 1 0 -1 0 1 1 4 5 6 6 -1 LAND (KM) 1314 1320 1322 1344 1369 1467 1585 1699 1799 1860 1857 1811 1727 1629 1469 1247 1026 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.6 120.2 120.9 121.5 122.8 124.1 125.4 126.7 127.8 128.3 128.4 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 4 5 6 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -16. -26. -35. -43. -49. -55. -59. -61. -62. -65. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 10. 12. 14. 10. 9. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -20. -30. -30. -31. -31. -36. -40. -44. -45. -48. -51. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.7 119.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 17.7% 6.5% 6.1% 3.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 6.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##