* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 99 89 82 75 61 50 39 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 99 89 82 75 61 50 39 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 100 87 75 66 51 41 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 30 20 7 6 13 6 18 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 19 11 2 3 0 9 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 250 246 208 273 340 248 196 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.0 25.4 25.6 25.1 23.7 22.0 18.3 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 126 119 121 115 102 87 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 54 56 55 58 54 50 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 32 31 28 24 21 21 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 106 104 99 85 57 42 20 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 -18 -6 0 10 32 69 85 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 21 25 23 10 -16 -37 -118 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 738 790 881 990 1109 1314 1623 1590 1100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.6 27.3 28.7 30.1 32.7 36.5 41.4 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 167.1 166.9 166.6 166.6 166.6 165.8 163.1 159.3 155.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 14 14 18 26 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 19 CX,CY: 8/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -33. -46. -57. -63. -70. -74. -77. -80. -83. -87. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -6. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -24. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -28. -35. -49. -60. -71. -91. -96.-102.-107.-111.-119.-127.-135.-142. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.9 167.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 629.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##