* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 71 69 67 63 59 51 46 44 41 36 39 37 39 42 V (KT) LAND 70 70 71 71 69 67 63 59 51 46 44 41 36 39 37 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 68 66 63 62 61 58 54 54 53 53 52 52 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 18 16 13 7 4 10 14 15 8 11 12 11 12 16 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 3 0 -5 -4 0 4 7 3 1 1 10 10 13 0 9 SHEAR DIR 220 230 203 192 178 57 12 7 351 327 312 289 283 237 256 210 218 SST (C) 26.6 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.8 25.0 24.5 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.3 24.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 112 107 106 105 105 106 109 103 99 98 99 101 102 100 101 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 96 92 91 90 86 86 89 85 83 83 85 86 87 86 87 85 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -54.4 -55.0 -55.7 -55.5 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 52 52 51 53 46 40 42 42 44 48 48 41 34 37 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 42 44 43 40 37 35 35 34 33 34 33 31 33 31 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 134 129 131 107 99 89 66 49 0 -16 -16 22 50 72 37 46 152 200 MB DIV 44 61 53 -21 1 12 -20 22 4 -12 14 -12 -8 7 -47 9 43 700-850 TADV 5 10 10 7 1 0 3 11 14 2 8 2 4 -11 -1 -10 -36 LAND (KM) 1585 1486 1388 1282 1177 1051 1018 1055 1113 1161 1201 1257 1361 1460 1551 1627 1721 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.9 32.8 33.8 34.8 36.1 36.5 36.4 36.2 36.2 35.9 35.5 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.2 57.3 57.5 57.7 57.8 57.4 56.5 55.4 54.2 52.7 51.0 49.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. -34. -37. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -21. -17. -19. -18. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -19. -24. -26. -29. -34. -31. -33. -31. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.9 57.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 71 71 69 67 63 59 51 46 44 41 36 39 37 39 42 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 68 66 62 58 50 45 43 40 35 38 36 38 41 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 64 62 58 54 46 41 39 36 31 34 32 34 37 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 56 52 48 40 35 33 30 25 28 26 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT