* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 116 113 112 105 98 92 93 88 91 85 83 77 77 76 74 V (KT) LAND 115 115 116 113 112 105 98 92 93 88 91 85 83 77 77 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 113 111 107 99 89 82 77 74 72 70 69 66 66 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 3 8 5 5 6 10 17 16 15 13 15 6 5 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -3 -4 2 7 7 3 3 0 0 -4 1 5 5 11 SHEAR DIR 10 27 313 262 212 305 32 42 51 44 43 34 28 355 360 324 333 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 146 136 134 134 132 135 135 133 129 125 125 123 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -50.5 -51.4 -50.0 -50.7 -49.9 -50.7 -50.6 -51.2 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 69 71 65 62 64 65 61 62 58 58 54 49 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 38 38 41 40 41 41 44 42 45 43 43 40 40 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 68 66 73 53 56 63 72 87 97 91 98 113 123 109 119 200 MB DIV 112 92 89 87 58 32 -7 -25 30 18 44 23 46 32 83 40 33 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -3 -1 3 5 2 -1 -2 -2 0 2 3 2 8 0 LAND (KM) 1343 1337 1337 1342 1344 1384 1467 1585 1691 1808 1870 1896 1888 1829 1731 1584 1445 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.6 119.2 119.8 120.4 121.6 122.8 124.1 125.3 126.6 127.7 128.5 129.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 13 10 4 4 6 5 8 9 9 9 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -11. -20. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. -53. -55. -58. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 10. 8. 12. 8. 7. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -2. -3. -10. -17. -23. -22. -27. -24. -30. -32. -38. -38. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.5 118.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 20.1% 15.8% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.5% 14.9% 6.5% 5.6% 2.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.9% 7.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 14.0% 7.9% 6.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##