* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 108 98 87 73 61 53 43 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 115 108 98 87 73 61 53 43 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 114 105 94 82 61 48 40 36 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 23 28 33 9 13 9 14 23 34 44 72 49 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 13 17 11 0 2 -3 5 10 16 11 0 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 246 247 244 251 235 322 311 215 196 194 214 264 300 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.7 24.9 23.6 22.4 19.9 16.6 14.1 14.0 13.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 142 138 129 122 112 100 90 66 67 68 67 68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 1.9 1.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 58 53 54 52 58 56 54 45 32 27 21 29 26 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 34 35 31 27 25 20 21 17 8 11 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 87 78 119 126 120 75 92 46 6 -69 -91 2 47 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 158 110 74 37 -16 0 5 57 48 70 32 -1 -53 -86 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 43 42 45 35 49 21 -5 12 -43 -10 13 -54 -68 -34 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1041 935 862 834 851 1022 1165 1296 1520 1811 1365 1088 649 99 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 20.5 22.1 23.8 25.5 28.5 30.6 32.6 35.5 39.4 43.8 48.5 53.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.7 169.2 168.6 168.1 167.6 167.3 166.8 165.6 163.3 160.0 155.3 149.2 143.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 16 13 11 14 20 26 30 31 29 31 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 19 15 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -29. -41. -52. -63. -73. -81. -87. -92. -95. -99.-103. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -19. -19. -14. -10. -6. -8. -12. -19. -33. -48. -54. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -7. -11. -19. -18. -23. -33. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -22. -33. -47. -59. -67. -77. -85.-102.-127.-142.-163.-173.-183.-188. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.8 169.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 624.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##