* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 99 100 100 103 102 104 102 100 96 92 89 85 80 77 74 V (KT) LAND 100 100 99 100 100 103 102 104 102 100 96 92 89 85 80 77 74 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 97 96 95 97 98 99 96 90 84 81 79 78 74 73 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 15 13 7 0 2 7 7 11 12 9 13 9 10 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 -2 -2 -2 0 2 2 0 -2 2 0 0 -3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 36 48 46 35 48 46 97 46 77 57 49 64 65 46 58 37 344 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 149 150 147 138 134 131 129 131 130 132 129 124 127 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 73 71 73 67 62 55 54 50 50 50 47 45 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 36 35 38 39 41 41 43 42 42 42 41 40 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 71 75 78 68 62 64 75 76 100 109 116 121 119 138 146 142 125 200 MB DIV 125 129 101 72 66 81 62 38 -17 3 -13 2 8 7 27 23 48 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -11 -8 -6 0 2 2 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1383 1376 1375 1373 1377 1392 1415 1483 1575 1691 1782 1888 1962 2021 2029 1975 1919 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.1 117.8 118.5 119.2 120.6 121.8 123.1 124.5 126.0 127.4 128.9 130.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 15 15 10 5 4 3 2 3 9 9 4 1 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -32. -34. -35. -37. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 8. 9. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. 3. 2. 4. 2. -0. -4. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 12.0 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 20.5% 14.0% 9.9% 7.4% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 18.4% 4.9% 3.5% 1.6% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 14.4% 6.9% 4.7% 3.1% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##