* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 90 95 101 106 107 106 104 97 93 85 79 76 74 72 71 V (KT) LAND 75 83 90 95 101 106 107 106 104 97 93 85 79 76 74 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 92 94 98 99 100 99 95 89 79 74 72 73 77 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 16 23 22 18 19 8 2 4 2 5 7 6 6 6 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -2 3 4 1 -2 -2 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 71 67 53 37 43 29 20 170 183 322 305 30 41 49 28 351 96 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 148 149 146 140 136 134 129 129 127 125 126 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 83 79 77 74 71 66 58 55 54 51 50 47 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 30 31 32 34 36 38 38 40 39 39 40 40 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 48 58 69 74 76 82 87 76 86 82 107 110 127 116 127 125 137 200 MB DIV 131 104 105 138 108 112 90 145 82 1 -24 -28 -42 -13 11 25 55 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -1 0 2 5 4 0 0 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 1271 1332 1398 1414 1423 1408 1401 1395 1423 1492 1596 1678 1765 1842 1906 1974 2045 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.7 13.8 14.9 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.7 114.7 115.6 116.5 117.9 119.2 120.5 121.9 123.4 124.9 126.3 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 19 17 21 15 13 6 4 5 2 3 2 4 4 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -3. -0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 9. 14. 19. 18. 21. 19. 17. 16. 15. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 20. 26. 31. 32. 31. 29. 22. 18. 10. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 10.7 112.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.7% 37.7% 21.6% 16.3% 11.2% 16.2% 13.6% 11.3% Logistic: 33.9% 54.3% 19.6% 17.0% 8.7% 10.2% 4.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 42.2% 51.9% 59.3% 44.6% 22.4% 29.5% 3.9% 0.1% Consensus: 33.9% 47.9% 33.5% 26.0% 14.1% 18.6% 7.3% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##