* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 72 80 87 97 102 102 103 102 98 94 88 81 77 73 71 V (KT) LAND 60 65 72 80 87 97 102 102 103 102 98 94 88 81 77 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 69 75 80 90 97 101 99 96 92 87 77 68 64 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 10 17 23 17 15 7 4 3 4 5 10 7 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 4 2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 4 11 10 2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 29 23 24 70 72 39 27 26 17 64 10 59 69 85 81 57 76 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.2 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 150 148 150 146 135 135 131 128 125 122 120 120 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -50.4 -51.1 -50.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 81 84 83 83 82 75 76 73 70 65 62 56 55 52 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 29 31 34 35 37 38 41 41 41 42 41 38 37 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 30 38 50 76 76 83 81 83 76 74 76 78 74 71 72 200 MB DIV 63 64 115 91 107 124 107 82 62 74 20 15 -17 -4 -5 29 20 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 1 1 0 5 15 7 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 961 1025 1092 1151 1218 1271 1259 1259 1263 1259 1274 1325 1390 1460 1530 1589 1657 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.4 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.6 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.9 110.0 111.1 112.2 113.2 115.0 116.5 117.9 119.1 120.3 121.4 122.5 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 22 27 29 18 14 12 5 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 18. 24. 25. 24. 24. 20. 15. 13. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 28. 37. 42. 42. 43. 42. 38. 34. 28. 21. 17. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.5 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.29 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 29.6% 20.8% 15.7% 11.1% 15.3% 14.0% 11.4% Logistic: 8.6% 36.6% 11.9% 7.2% 1.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% Bayesian: 9.1% 37.7% 22.3% 10.9% 0.6% 14.7% 11.5% 9.7% Consensus: 10.5% 34.7% 18.3% 11.3% 4.4% 11.4% 9.7% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##