* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 68 72 78 87 94 99 101 100 100 98 91 86 82 79 77 V (KT) LAND 60 63 68 72 78 87 94 99 101 100 100 98 91 86 82 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 71 75 85 92 97 99 95 93 89 82 75 71 69 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 17 16 20 20 14 6 1 1 4 7 10 9 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 4 -1 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 5 4 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 3 28 37 53 56 56 30 19 37 18 222 2 37 52 74 56 46 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 152 151 149 147 150 138 135 131 130 126 124 121 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 83 83 82 80 74 71 65 60 56 53 53 51 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 28 31 34 37 38 39 40 42 41 40 39 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 22 28 37 69 94 85 93 84 87 86 88 88 99 92 100 200 MB DIV 87 58 56 72 67 112 106 119 88 71 53 35 -9 -26 14 7 19 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -3 -1 -1 -4 -7 -6 0 0 5 7 7 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 906 982 1051 1116 1189 1298 1280 1260 1275 1265 1267 1293 1340 1409 1460 1516 1566 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.9 14.0 15.0 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.2 110.3 111.4 112.5 114.4 116.0 117.4 118.8 120.0 121.1 122.1 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 21 23 28 23 13 14 7 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 24. 25. 27. 27. 23. 20. 17. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 27. 34. 39. 41. 40. 40. 38. 31. 26. 22. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.5 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.18 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 22.5% 17.6% 13.4% 9.4% 13.0% 11.6% 10.5% Logistic: 1.8% 11.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 1.3% 3.8% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 13.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.4% 3.3% 0.4% 4.0% Consensus: 4.9% 15.9% 8.0% 5.3% 3.4% 5.9% 5.3% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##