* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 60 67 72 78 80 83 79 76 72 69 64 60 60 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 60 67 72 78 80 83 79 76 72 69 64 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 58 61 67 72 75 74 73 67 63 63 62 59 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 15 14 16 12 10 18 17 20 20 7 6 9 6 15 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 0 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 5 -2 -3 3 1 4 7 3 SHEAR DIR 298 266 238 245 262 194 226 198 213 182 197 326 286 259 347 284 289 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.3 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.2 24.3 24.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 106 106 105 108 108 108 106 107 103 102 101 99 100 100 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 89 89 88 90 89 90 90 91 88 86 86 84 85 85 80 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.6 -56.0 -55.9 -56.3 -55.4 -55.3 -54.5 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 46 46 46 47 50 55 54 51 45 41 47 45 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 32 33 35 36 38 41 44 42 41 39 38 37 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 152 162 158 149 146 152 153 144 131 130 93 80 72 76 57 42 44 200 MB DIV -3 -11 5 -1 -12 36 16 58 51 36 -11 30 5 33 -26 -14 -23 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -2 -6 -3 -3 -1 -4 -1 0 1 0 3 4 12 5 5 LAND (KM) 1451 1464 1477 1503 1531 1603 1637 1637 1564 1426 1289 1134 1036 1024 1075 1190 1326 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.3 33.0 32.7 32.3 31.5 31.2 31.3 32.1 33.6 35.1 36.5 37.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.1 54.4 54.7 55.0 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.6 54.1 53.5 52.6 51.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 3 1 2 6 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 12. 10. 7. 5. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 22. 28. 30. 33. 29. 26. 22. 19. 14. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.5 53.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 57 60 67 72 78 80 83 79 76 72 69 64 60 60 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 57 64 69 75 77 80 76 73 69 66 61 57 57 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 58 63 69 71 74 70 67 63 60 55 51 51 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 50 55 61 63 66 62 59 55 52 47 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT