* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 65 72 79 92 100 99 98 95 97 91 85 80 77 75 73 V (KT) LAND 55 59 65 72 79 92 100 99 98 95 97 91 85 80 77 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 72 83 93 95 94 92 91 89 82 75 72 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 15 14 23 25 16 10 3 3 3 5 8 12 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 4 6 1 0 5 -1 -2 1 3 4 5 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 342 1 18 25 53 67 39 20 21 25 46 302 39 32 40 47 83 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 155 154 154 149 148 147 140 137 132 126 123 123 123 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 81 83 85 84 82 77 75 70 67 61 55 48 47 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 27 28 33 37 37 38 38 41 40 39 37 38 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 25 27 36 57 91 78 87 82 82 72 78 76 96 96 108 200 MB DIV 94 77 61 60 85 141 120 102 87 85 61 4 0 -16 -17 -10 31 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -4 -3 0 -1 -5 1 1 0 2 7 3 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 825 898 977 1040 1107 1226 1271 1259 1250 1253 1244 1267 1315 1391 1461 1521 1570 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.0 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.9 109.0 110.1 111.2 113.3 115.0 116.5 117.9 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 27 24 22 31 19 13 11 6 7 5 2 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 15. 19. 24. 23. 27. 24. 21. 17. 16. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 24. 37. 45. 44. 43. 40. 42. 36. 30. 25. 22. 20. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.6 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 26.3% 19.8% 14.8% 10.2% 13.8% 13.5% 11.2% Logistic: 7.1% 30.0% 9.0% 5.5% 1.1% 5.0% 4.9% 5.9% Bayesian: 4.7% 26.0% 12.0% 6.3% 0.6% 5.6% 4.9% 5.5% Consensus: 8.3% 27.4% 13.6% 8.8% 4.0% 8.1% 7.8% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##