* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 10/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 39 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 47 39 31 25 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 43 36 31 28 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 29 29 32 31 34 56 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 2 -3 -4 2 0 -9 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 229 240 239 242 234 227 225 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.4 22.9 22.2 21.0 30.0 29.7 27.5 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 96 91 84 72 166 163 140 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 8 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 50 48 49 49 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 23 19 17 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 2 -2 -8 -23 -16 0 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 22 41 50 52 55 52 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 -1 -2 -4 0 9 20 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 378 277 186 126 53 25 -234 -502 -750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.5 27.3 28.2 29.1 31.1 33.5 35.8 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.9 117.4 116.8 116.2 115.6 114.5 113.4 112.5 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 29 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -4. -1. 1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -19. -38. -54. -66. -72. -77. -83. -90.-101.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -7. -13. -20. -26. -29. -29. -29. -27. -25. -23. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -30. -35. -39. -49. -68. -82. -93. -99.-106.-114.-123.-134.-139. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.6 117.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 10/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 10/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##