* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 66 77 89 98 114 121 122 112 100 84 73 61 47 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 66 77 89 98 114 121 122 112 100 84 73 61 47 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 66 77 89 101 119 127 124 108 86 65 53 47 44 39 29 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 2 3 5 6 9 9 26 39 20 4 20 34 46 51 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 0 6 14 7 0 -1 1 7 10 18 N/A SHEAR DIR 317 323 305 246 300 305 252 243 249 248 213 285 308 228 210 198 N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.1 24.5 23.2 22.5 18.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 159 160 159 157 151 147 137 132 124 113 109 96 91 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 4 6 5 3 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 72 72 71 71 67 55 52 56 53 57 47 41 35 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 29 28 32 36 39 40 39 34 30 27 22 25 17 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 82 82 80 80 74 67 98 118 159 156 121 79 74 39 -48 N/A 200 MB DIV 99 94 107 107 137 117 122 149 120 19 8 30 36 58 61 48 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 4 10 16 23 60 78 24 0 13 -3 13 9 N/A LAND (KM) 1207 1245 1292 1310 1334 1318 1212 1074 945 929 1055 1190 1244 1470 1490 1545 N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.0 14.3 16.3 18.7 21.8 25.2 27.7 29.3 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.9 166.0 167.1 168.0 168.8 169.9 170.2 170.0 169.4 168.6 168.5 168.8 168.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 9 11 14 16 15 10 8 13 15 23 36 N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 52 51 46 45 59 74 38 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -4. -4. -5. -9. -16. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 4. 6. 13. 19. 23. 22. 15. 9. 4. -1. 1. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 22. 34. 43. 59. 66. 67. 57. 45. 29. 18. 6. -8. -19. -45. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.9 164.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 19.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 19.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.88 19.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 15.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -14.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 17.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 14.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 85% is 13.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 98% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 23.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 91% is 15.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 84.8% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 100.0% 91.3% 54.5% Logistic: 93.3% 96.7% 96.8% 95.8% 97.2% 95.8% 83.6% 13.0% Bayesian: 92.8% 97.2% 98.8% 99.2% 98.0% 97.9% 89.6% 16.0% Consensus: 90.3% 98.0% 98.2% 97.7% 97.4% 97.9% 88.2% 27.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##