* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 49 52 57 64 70 74 78 82 77 75 70 66 62 62 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 49 52 57 64 70 74 78 82 77 75 70 66 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 52 58 64 70 74 76 73 67 64 63 62 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 21 19 11 12 14 14 20 17 12 3 4 6 7 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 -4 -6 -1 -5 -1 5 0 -1 1 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 331 319 304 278 257 246 209 233 211 214 201 166 274 354 338 334 275 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.2 24.5 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 106 107 108 107 108 109 108 107 103 101 100 97 99 98 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 87 88 88 90 89 90 90 91 91 87 86 84 82 83 82 82 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -56.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -55.2 -55.2 -54.6 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 8 8 8 6 3 3 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 48 48 48 47 50 52 60 59 50 47 45 49 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 28 30 30 32 33 36 39 42 38 37 35 35 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 162 152 151 165 160 153 150 136 119 119 114 69 39 26 49 36 59 200 MB DIV -12 -19 2 1 5 -9 39 20 52 37 31 -16 23 -8 38 5 9 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 2 4 -1 -1 -9 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1456 1477 1485 1503 1522 1571 1620 1665 1636 1562 1423 1270 1146 1088 1080 1129 1180 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.4 33.2 33.0 32.7 32.1 31.6 31.2 31.6 32.6 33.9 35.3 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.0 53.3 53.6 53.8 54.0 54.4 54.5 54.4 54.0 53.2 52.5 52.0 51.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 4 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 9. 6. 3. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 37. 32. 30. 25. 21. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.6 53.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.9% 5.9% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 49 52 57 64 70 74 78 82 77 75 70 66 62 62 18HR AGO 45 44 45 48 51 56 63 69 73 77 81 76 74 69 65 61 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 52 59 65 69 73 77 72 70 65 61 57 57 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 50 56 60 64 68 63 61 56 52 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT