* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 49 54 60 64 70 70 74 73 68 67 61 59 59 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 49 54 60 64 70 70 74 73 68 67 61 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 49 55 61 67 72 74 73 68 63 62 61 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 26 22 18 13 7 16 15 21 17 3 5 8 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1 0 2 -4 -3 0 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 349 333 320 304 281 231 253 221 221 195 193 224 348 255 358 299 308 SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.4 24.8 24.6 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 104 105 106 107 108 109 109 108 107 102 101 98 98 99 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 85 86 87 88 88 90 89 91 91 91 87 85 83 83 83 82 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -56.4 -55.8 -56.1 -55.8 -55.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -54.5 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 50 50 50 49 47 50 50 53 45 43 40 42 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 27 29 31 33 33 36 36 40 39 35 35 33 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 168 155 151 152 166 158 151 145 139 142 143 93 46 29 38 57 56 200 MB DIV -5 -8 -14 4 7 1 37 25 35 49 27 -18 16 -16 8 -4 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 -2 -3 6 0 0 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1446 1473 1500 1520 1536 1574 1619 1679 1661 1588 1479 1322 1181 1073 1037 1071 1118 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.5 33.2 33.0 32.7 32.2 31.7 31.1 31.3 32.1 33.3 34.8 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.4 52.8 53.1 53.4 53.6 54.0 54.2 54.3 54.2 53.9 53.5 52.9 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 3 5 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 10. 8. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 25. 25. 29. 28. 23. 22. 16. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.7 52.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.2% 5.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 46 49 54 60 64 70 70 74 73 68 67 61 59 59 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 48 53 59 63 69 69 73 72 67 66 60 58 58 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 45 50 56 60 66 66 70 69 64 63 57 55 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 49 53 59 59 63 62 57 56 50 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT