* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 09/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 48 56 65 80 92 97 99 91 88 81 70 60 53 42 18 V (KT) LAND 35 40 48 56 65 80 92 97 99 91 88 81 70 60 53 42 18 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 45 50 64 81 95 99 92 83 71 58 51 48 42 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 11 6 1 6 8 8 8 21 24 10 9 19 24 41 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -8 -5 -4 -2 -2 4 12 3 3 1 3 14 10 18 SHEAR DIR 271 293 334 333 141 308 284 271 262 250 249 249 281 300 253 220 203 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.2 26.8 25.9 24.0 25.4 24.1 22.1 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 165 165 160 158 154 151 148 138 134 125 100 116 108 90 69 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.6 -51.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 4 3 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 71 71 73 73 72 67 55 47 44 51 48 47 45 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 25 24 25 26 30 33 35 35 37 36 30 26 24 25 18 850 MB ENV VOR 60 69 79 79 80 69 62 66 102 115 160 150 104 92 65 49 -46 200 MB DIV 102 110 84 76 88 72 130 123 124 96 31 -9 17 10 40 67 41 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 1 0 2 8 12 22 41 22 14 5 2 11 26 -8 LAND (KM) 1015 1094 1174 1205 1248 1284 1238 1146 1009 884 904 1110 1393 1088 1181 1595 1471 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 13.1 14.5 16.2 18.6 21.5 24.8 28.4 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.4 162.8 164.1 165.3 166.5 168.2 169.1 169.4 169.3 168.8 168.5 168.6 168.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 8 9 10 14 16 17 18 5 8 21 33 36 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 44 51 54 47 52 65 36 17 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. 1. 1. -0. -3. -11. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 11. 17. 23. 22. 25. 21. 13. 7. 5. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 13. 21. 30. 45. 57. 62. 64. 56. 53. 46. 35. 25. 18. 7. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 161.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 19.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 7.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.92 16.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 10.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -12.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.43 3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 79% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 70.7% 61.0% 46.2% 44.6% 41.5% 78.8% 63.9% Logistic: 36.0% 79.9% 75.0% 63.5% 78.2% 75.5% 83.4% 44.9% Bayesian: 5.9% 61.3% 60.0% 42.1% 35.7% 67.2% 71.3% 59.4% Consensus: 19.1% 70.6% 65.3% 50.6% 52.8% 61.4% 77.8% 56.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 09/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##