* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 59 67 82 95 102 97 98 97 95 91 90 87 84 84 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 59 67 82 95 102 97 98 97 95 91 90 87 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 58 73 91 99 96 93 93 92 92 91 85 81 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 10 8 8 16 22 23 15 16 6 4 8 1 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 7 2 3 0 -1 1 0 2 7 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 19 349 8 14 19 30 57 43 30 24 52 14 20 294 74 218 216 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 159 156 151 149 150 151 151 145 141 140 138 135 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -51.5 -52.1 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 79 78 80 82 83 82 81 78 76 74 72 71 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 19 23 29 34 31 34 35 36 35 37 36 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 0 2 0 4 23 61 81 72 98 75 54 38 38 54 98 200 MB DIV 56 62 62 68 85 66 104 142 137 94 77 58 76 7 33 39 114 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 4 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 596 637 669 710 763 886 979 1079 1133 1124 1147 1153 1146 1129 1175 1249 1334 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.8 104.8 105.8 106.8 108.7 110.6 112.5 114.4 116.1 117.5 118.5 119.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 31 38 36 32 26 33 27 15 11 7 9 11 11 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 24. 24. 28. 29. 29. 25. 24. 21. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 27. 42. 55. 62. 57. 58. 57. 55. 51. 50. 47. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.2 102.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 37.0% 24.7% 17.0% 12.1% 16.3% 24.6% 20.6% Logistic: 15.8% 57.2% 32.4% 20.8% 12.4% 32.4% 29.6% 23.7% Bayesian: 2.3% 48.2% 30.2% 12.7% 7.9% 38.8% 41.2% 57.6% Consensus: 10.5% 47.5% 29.1% 16.9% 10.8% 29.2% 31.8% 34.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##