* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 09/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 56 68 80 93 96 96 99 100 94 93 90 88 86 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 56 68 80 93 96 96 99 100 94 93 90 88 86 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 60 74 88 93 92 92 92 92 91 87 82 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 6 9 9 11 9 20 14 10 5 6 6 8 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 2 8 2 6 0 -3 -3 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 22 32 36 14 24 29 44 36 41 28 21 75 345 338 350 288 257 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 160 159 153 150 149 151 151 148 143 141 138 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 80 79 79 78 80 79 78 78 78 73 71 67 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 15 17 22 28 29 30 32 34 31 32 32 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -5 -8 -4 -4 6 46 83 82 81 79 55 44 22 30 38 200 MB DIV 28 42 51 51 66 66 64 136 149 97 106 55 14 13 23 46 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -12 -6 -12 -5 -3 0 2 3 1 LAND (KM) 594 621 651 677 716 829 953 1086 1176 1168 1174 1190 1184 1192 1228 1284 1342 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.6 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.2 104.2 105.2 106.1 108.1 110.2 112.2 114.2 115.9 117.3 118.3 119.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 26 36 40 32 31 28 29 16 13 9 8 9 9 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 19. 22. 23. 26. 26. 21. 20. 18. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 33. 45. 58. 61. 61. 64. 65. 59. 58. 55. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 102.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 09/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 36.3% 21.9% 16.3% 11.6% 16.2% 26.0% 41.2% Logistic: 16.1% 59.7% 34.7% 21.3% 14.5% 36.9% 47.0% 35.6% Bayesian: 3.1% 68.4% 39.8% 15.4% 4.5% 54.3% 62.1% 13.9% Consensus: 10.6% 54.8% 32.1% 17.6% 10.2% 35.8% 45.1% 30.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 09/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##