* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 87 85 83 74 64 52 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 89 87 85 83 74 64 52 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 88 83 79 74 62 50 37 27 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 11 9 17 22 29 37 48 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 2 5 4 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 278 262 230 202 222 223 239 240 224 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.3 25.9 24.8 24.3 23.2 21.2 28.0 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 131 126 122 111 106 94 74 145 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 61 62 60 55 53 52 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 35 36 36 35 32 26 19 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 12 8 18 28 38 30 3 -21 -6 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 44 56 78 80 32 20 41 50 81 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 1 3 3 6 10 0 -10 -13 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 904 861 810 767 630 433 235 101 -23 -210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.2 23.0 24.9 26.8 28.8 31.1 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.2 118.4 118.6 118.7 118.5 117.9 117.1 116.1 115.0 113.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 10 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -18. -27. -35. -40. -40. -43. -45. -47. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -23. -25. -28. -32. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -6. -16. -30. -35. -33. -30. -27. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -10. -12. -21. -31. -43. -60. -81. -91. -93. -94. -97.-100.-103.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.0 117.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##