* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 45 45 45 42 44 49 53 59 67 72 71 69 64 61 V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 45 45 45 42 44 49 53 59 67 72 71 69 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 47 47 51 58 65 76 85 87 82 76 72 66 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 28 29 32 31 28 19 11 10 16 16 16 10 5 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 0 -4 2 -5 -4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 28 33 24 15 2 351 318 282 236 255 231 202 178 137 345 42 56 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 105 105 108 110 112 115 117 120 124 124 122 120 118 117 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 91 89 89 90 92 93 95 97 100 102 101 101 100 99 97 96 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.7 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.5 -56.3 -55.5 -55.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 6 5 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 50 51 52 52 53 51 48 42 44 44 46 40 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 27 27 25 27 29 30 31 35 39 39 39 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 153 147 149 146 150 165 156 168 163 168 171 172 176 152 96 73 56 200 MB DIV -32 -34 -33 -8 -3 -9 -4 1 -4 14 20 17 20 -17 -27 -11 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 1 0 1 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 1250 1279 1314 1352 1392 1456 1484 1502 1533 1575 1582 1561 1503 1403 1292 1154 1004 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 35.5 35.0 34.6 34.2 33.6 33.1 32.7 32.2 31.5 31.1 31.1 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 49.8 50.8 51.5 52.1 53.1 53.9 54.6 55.3 56.0 56.7 57.2 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 4 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 8 9 9 14 13 10 6 2 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. 1. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -3. -1. 4. 8. 14. 22. 27. 26. 24. 19. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.9 48.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.9% 5.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 45 45 45 45 42 44 49 53 59 67 72 71 69 64 61 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 43 43 40 42 47 51 57 65 70 69 67 62 59 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 41 38 40 45 49 55 63 68 67 65 60 57 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 32 34 39 43 49 57 62 61 59 54 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT