* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 131 128 125 112 98 86 69 50 32 17 23 20 18 18 19 V (KT) LAND 125 129 131 128 125 112 98 86 69 50 34 27 27 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 125 126 123 118 112 97 84 69 53 39 30 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 5 4 4 11 16 24 31 38 50 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -7 -7 -8 -3 -4 2 5 -5 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 21 42 40 48 222 231 227 224 236 234 224 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 26.4 25.4 24.5 23.8 22.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 140 138 127 117 108 101 83 169 169 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 3 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 61 60 60 55 49 49 56 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 35 35 36 36 35 35 31 24 15 6 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 58 60 50 34 37 39 13 16 14 37 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 20 -7 32 43 39 21 26 31 58 74 104 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 0 -2 3 8 8 10 0 0 27 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 997 1012 1019 994 972 862 733 544 318 110 42 -350 -784 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.9 21.8 23.8 25.9 28.0 30.7 34.1 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.6 118.1 118.3 118.6 118.8 118.7 118.2 117.4 116.1 114.3 111.8 109.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 9 10 11 12 14 17 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 28 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -30. -42. -53. -64. -69. -70. -68. -69. -70. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -9. -21. -25. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 0. -9. -21. -32. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 3. 0. -13. -27. -39. -56. -75. -93.-108.-102.-105.-107.-107.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.9 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 576.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 4.9% 2.9% 2.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 9 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##