* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 39 33 28 24 20 16 16 17 20 22 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 39 33 28 24 20 16 16 17 20 22 24 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 39 34 29 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 22 24 31 35 36 34 38 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 5 6 7 7 3 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 261 265 261 263 270 261 260 250 258 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 151 150 149 152 156 154 152 152 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 151 150 148 151 155 152 148 147 146 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 65 68 66 65 66 66 68 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 15 13 10 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -16 -3 -5 -3 14 17 35 34 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 75 57 67 53 38 58 28 70 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 4 -2 -3 -6 -5 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 563 462 392 373 400 411 278 257 210 268 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.8 15.6 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.5 58.8 60.0 61.1 63.5 66.0 68.5 70.8 72.8 74.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 42 48 41 41 49 61 53 58 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -23. -26. -26. -25. -25. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. -29. -28. -25. -23. -21. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.7 56.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.8% 7.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.8% 2.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/27/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 43 39 33 28 24 20 16 16 17 20 22 24 25 24 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 38 32 27 23 19 15 15 16 19 21 23 24 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 36 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT