* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 51 50 47 39 32 27 23 18 18 18 22 24 26 28 27 V (KT) LAND 50 52 51 50 47 39 32 27 23 18 18 18 22 24 26 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 54 53 51 44 36 30 24 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 16 23 28 31 38 37 36 31 37 25 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 5 2 7 6 4 3 -1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 244 259 266 270 271 269 263 262 253 252 243 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 158 151 150 149 157 154 154 152 152 153 153 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 158 151 150 149 155 151 150 146 146 147 147 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 63 65 66 66 70 70 73 75 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 11 9 8 6 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -9 -21 -24 -7 -13 -6 12 2 14 26 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 75 63 36 52 71 48 40 58 63 77 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 2 1 3 -5 -5 -7 -4 1 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 672 562 462 402 390 478 306 223 228 167 218 212 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.3 57.6 58.9 60.1 62.4 64.7 67.0 69.2 71.3 73.3 75.3 77.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 32 43 47 40 48 51 74 56 58 76 83 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -25. -23. -23. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. -3. -11. -18. -23. -27. -32. -32. -32. -28. -26. -24. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.5 55.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.6% 9.1% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.3% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 3.2% 3.7% 4.8% Bayesian: 2.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.8% 3.7% 2.9% 0.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122018 KIRK 09/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/26/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 51 50 47 39 32 27 23 18 18 18 22 24 26 28 27 18HR AGO 50 49 48 47 44 36 29 24 20 15 15 15 19 21 23 25 24 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 42 34 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT