* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 71 77 90 96 103 103 102 97 89 81 72 63 51 45 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 71 77 90 96 103 103 102 97 89 81 72 63 51 45 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 73 78 89 97 101 100 94 84 73 63 53 43 34 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 5 4 2 2 6 11 15 21 29 27 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 2 3 3 1 -3 0 -1 -3 0 7 -2 -3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 50 43 32 12 11 25 57 84 229 233 235 233 220 237 230 228 231 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.6 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.3 23.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 160 156 151 146 141 139 129 125 119 115 111 103 97 96 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 72 71 70 66 63 59 56 57 53 44 37 31 30 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 24 25 25 27 31 31 36 38 39 38 36 35 32 27 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 41 44 46 51 46 54 57 44 49 37 54 67 71 90 71 200 MB DIV 77 60 64 51 34 62 33 42 29 68 69 23 21 6 6 -2 -20 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 1 2 6 8 0 -2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 692 742 794 804 812 865 936 994 1000 971 949 891 829 752 658 550 449 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.3 113.1 114.7 116.4 118.0 119.1 119.8 120.3 120.6 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 25 25 27 19 14 8 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 21. 25. 27. 25. 22. 18. 13. 7. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 35. 41. 48. 48. 47. 42. 34. 26. 17. 8. -4. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.3 109.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 31.8% 29.5% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 15.9% Logistic: 2.7% 8.5% 4.5% 2.2% 1.0% 7.1% 12.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 3.8% 10.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.6% 4.3% 0.2% Consensus: 7.2% 17.0% 12.4% 8.2% 0.3% 2.9% 11.3% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##