* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 41 45 52 63 67 72 76 78 81 81 78 77 77 79 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 41 45 52 63 67 72 76 78 81 81 78 77 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 41 49 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 20 19 14 18 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 9 358 351 329 237 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.6 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 125 127 126 120 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 101 104 106 107 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.0 -57.3 -57.7 -58.0 -57.7 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 52 57 56 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 19 21 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 57 59 77 104 119 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 16 -2 2 37 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 0 -1 -5 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1633 1648 1665 1689 1717 1805 1902 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.5 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 47.8 47.3 46.4 45.5 43.1 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 17. 28. 32. 37. 41. 43. 46. 46. 43. 42. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.5 48.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.5% 7.3% 5.4% 4.3% 7.5% 6.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.0% 2.7% 1.2% 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.1% 3.3% 2.2% 1.6% 3.0% 2.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 41 45 52 63 67 72 76 78 81 81 78 77 77 79 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 42 49 60 64 69 73 75 78 78 75 74 74 76 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 45 56 60 65 69 71 74 74 71 70 70 72 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 47 51 56 60 62 65 65 62 61 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT