* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 41 45 48 53 57 58 58 59 58 61 63 67 69 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 41 45 48 53 57 58 58 59 58 61 63 67 69 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 45 47 49 49 49 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 4 7 5 7 9 18 18 12 12 16 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 4 5 4 0 -1 3 6 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 271 261 266 293 301 302 297 292 252 256 247 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.7 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 142 142 144 140 155 151 151 148 142 147 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 142 142 144 140 155 151 151 148 142 147 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 67 64 62 63 59 61 64 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 47 44 39 38 23 17 10 15 8 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -7 11 15 5 42 41 60 54 56 41 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -7 -4 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1405 1612 1585 1504 1458 1236 933 715 614 549 323 214 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.3 31.3 33.3 35.4 37.6 41.9 45.9 49.5 52.8 55.8 58.4 60.7 63.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 20 21 22 20 19 17 16 14 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 9 10 10 22 27 27 23 38 41 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 18. 22. 23. 23. 24. 23. 26. 28. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.2 29.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.9% 10.7% 8.1% 7.7% 10.8% 11.5% 18.0% Logistic: 7.0% 23.8% 16.4% 7.6% 4.4% 17.0% 21.7% 26.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 15.8% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 0.9% 5.0% Consensus: 4.5% 18.5% 10.3% 5.4% 4.1% 9.9% 11.3% 16.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/23/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 41 45 48 53 57 58 58 59 58 61 63 67 69 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 42 45 50 54 55 55 56 55 58 60 64 66 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 41 46 50 51 51 52 51 54 56 60 62 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 34 39 43 44 44 45 44 47 49 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT