* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 44 47 53 59 63 66 67 64 61 60 63 67 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 44 47 53 59 63 66 67 64 61 60 63 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 43 45 49 53 57 59 59 56 51 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 5 6 5 5 13 12 11 14 18 26 33 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 3 3 3 4 -2 0 3 3 7 6 2 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 231 270 281 285 286 278 309 292 275 257 266 251 260 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 142 143 143 143 141 143 150 148 147 148 148 145 145 148 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 142 143 143 143 141 143 150 148 147 148 148 145 145 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 70 69 68 65 62 63 62 64 65 70 68 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 48 48 48 44 33 17 18 9 4 0 15 25 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -8 -38 -25 3 2 26 31 68 39 57 33 46 41 78 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 -4 -7 -4 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1033 1209 1391 1612 1570 1430 1206 924 730 647 615 417 299 389 345 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 25.6 27.4 29.2 31.3 33.4 37.9 42.1 45.9 49.4 52.4 55.2 57.7 60.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 19 21 21 22 20 18 16 15 13 13 14 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 15 14 11 10 11 21 26 25 24 50 46 51 50 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. 35. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -13. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 29. 26. 25. 28. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.8 25.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.3% 9.5% 7.1% 6.6% 10.1% 11.6% 21.2% Logistic: 4.4% 20.1% 13.0% 4.3% 2.7% 10.0% 15.1% 35.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 26.3% Consensus: 3.1% 13.0% 7.7% 3.8% 3.1% 6.8% 9.0% 27.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/23/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 44 47 53 59 63 66 67 64 61 60 63 67 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 42 45 51 57 61 64 65 62 59 58 61 65 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 38 41 47 53 57 60 61 58 55 54 57 61 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 34 40 46 50 53 54 51 48 47 50 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT