* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 46 49 55 59 61 64 65 64 61 60 64 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 46 49 55 59 61 64 65 64 61 60 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 50 52 55 60 64 67 67 63 57 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 5 7 5 9 9 10 10 12 18 21 36 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 4 3 3 0 0 0 5 6 8 8 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 76 225 247 251 261 289 306 310 267 263 262 249 250 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 143 143 143 139 142 148 151 147 152 148 145 147 142 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 143 143 143 139 142 148 151 147 152 148 145 147 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 69 71 71 71 65 66 66 67 66 69 69 66 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 51 50 50 48 37 31 21 15 14 6 13 34 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -10 -15 -44 -31 -18 25 38 57 57 54 51 33 43 67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 2 4 0 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -1 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 903 1058 1222 1433 1645 1448 1341 1010 783 644 628 469 260 278 354 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 24.1 25.8 27.5 29.6 31.6 36.0 40.4 44.4 48.0 51.2 54.1 56.9 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 20 21 22 21 19 17 15 15 14 13 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 17 15 13 8 13 14 32 22 27 32 47 52 35 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. 35. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. 29. 26. 25. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.4 24.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.7% 12.0% 9.3% 8.7% 11.7% 12.5% 19.5% Logistic: 7.5% 25.4% 19.2% 9.7% 5.5% 19.7% 21.5% 38.8% Bayesian: 1.2% 30.0% 7.3% 1.0% 0.4% 3.6% 1.2% 30.4% Consensus: 5.2% 24.4% 12.9% 6.7% 4.9% 11.7% 11.7% 29.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/22/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 42 44 46 49 55 59 61 64 65 64 61 60 64 67 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 42 45 51 55 57 60 61 60 57 56 60 63 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 37 40 46 50 52 55 56 55 52 51 55 58 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 32 38 42 44 47 48 47 44 43 47 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT