* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/18/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 34 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 34 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 26 26 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 37 35 34 29 19 12 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 -4 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 271 271 261 263 261 256 239 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 104 104 106 107 108 111 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 89 89 89 91 92 93 96 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.6 -56.3 -55.7 -55.2 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 29 29 29 28 24 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -25 -19 -23 -8 -19 -37 -56 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -17 -18 -20 -23 -36 -17 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1413 1409 1406 1427 1448 1525 1658 1806 1964 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.4 30.8 30.4 30.0 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.9 31.5 33.2 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.9 27.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/18/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.09 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.16 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 4.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/18/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 34 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 37 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 31 30 32 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 26 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 19 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT