* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 48 49 44 42 40 37 35 32 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 48 49 44 42 40 37 35 32 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 46 45 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 25 22 23 24 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 2 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 245 221 200 204 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.5 20.5 20.0 18.8 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 93 85 84 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 83 78 77 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.9 -56.3 -56.0 -55.9 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 45 47 47 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 28 29 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -30 -20 19 62 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 23 57 82 65 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 8 4 -14 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1853 1631 1422 1195 1000 1049 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.5 41.8 43.0 44.4 45.7 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.2 28.9 26.6 23.9 21.1 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 22 24 15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -18. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -26. -32. -35. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 40.5 31.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 352.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 7.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 47 48 49 44 42 40 37 35 32 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 49 50 45 43 41 38 36 33 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 43 41 39 36 34 31 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 36 34 32 29 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT