* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 40 39 40 38 35 32 30 27 25 23 21 19 17 16 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 40 39 40 38 35 32 30 27 25 23 21 19 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 33 32 31 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 38 37 35 36 34 31 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 225 235 239 245 270 274 280 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.9 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 122 122 125 110 107 104 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 107 106 106 108 95 92 90 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.6 -56.7 -57.2 -57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 32 32 31 28 27 30 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 9 -30 -57 -78 -94 -70 -52 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 0 -7 -4 0 -1 -19 -24 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 3 -4 -8 -5 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1888 1911 1942 2012 2090 1833 1593 1392 1182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.4 33.9 34.3 34.7 34.7 34.0 33.0 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.4 38.9 37.5 35.8 34.0 30.7 28.2 26.4 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 12 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -27. -30. -34. -39. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.8 40.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.01 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.4 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 40 39 40 38 35 32 30 27 25 23 21 19 17 16 18HR AGO 40 39 38 39 38 39 37 34 31 29 26 24 22 20 18 16 15 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 37 35 32 29 27 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 30 28 25 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT